Prof. Cenk Yaltırak: The great Istanbul earthquake may occur before 2065

The head of the MATAM Earthquake Research Center at Istanbul Technical University (Prof. Cenk Yaltırak) stated that the expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea region could happen no later than 2065 and that its probability in the next 40 years has significantly increased. He emphasized that tremors could begin as early as "tomorrow," and the timeline remains probabilistic in nature.

According to Yaltırak, MATAM’s work made it possible to create a three-dimensional fault map down to a depth of 20 km. In the Marmara Sea, 18 submarine landslides were discovered, which in the event of a strong earthquake could trigger a tsunami. The scientist also noted that the simultaneous rupture of several fault segments could lead to shocks of up to approximately 7.8 on the Richter scale. As a historical example, he referred to the tsunami of 1509, when waves reached about 6 meters in the Samatya area.

MATAM plans to model tsunami risks and publish the results. For the residents of Northern Cyprus, this is a reminder of the importance of preparedness for emergencies: checking housing resilience, having an emergency kit, planning evacuation routes, and following official announcements of civil protection services.