Global oil shortage risk: Hormuz Strait closure threatens economy

The global economy may face a severe oil shortage amid the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the key routes for global supplies. About 20% of the world's oil passes through this strategic corridor, and its blockage could trigger a chain reaction in energy markets.

Mike Wirth, head of Chevron, one of the largest energy companies, warned that if current geopolitical tensions persist, including the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, a shortage will become a reality. According to him, existing stocks are already being actively consumed — both by commercial structures and through state strategic reserves.

Experts note that Asian countries, which are largely dependent on oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, will be the first to feel the consequences. Subsequently, the pressure could spread to Europe, where rising prices and reduced supply could lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

At the same time, market adaptation is observed: alternative supply channels are being used, including the so-called "shadow fleet," and demand is being adjusted. However, according to analysts, without the restoration of stable supplies, the global economy will be forced to adapt through lower consumption and growth rates.

EU and Cyprus reaction to the threat
The European Union already has mechanisms in place to respond to energy crises, including the use of strategic oil reserves, coordination of purchases, and diversification of energy sources. Particular attention is paid to accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on oil imports.

Cyprus, as an island nation with high energy dependence, focuses on developing fuel storage infrastructure, expanding the use of renewable energy sources, and participating in regional energy projects. In the event of an escalating crisis, the country can also utilize strategic reserves and pan-European support mechanisms.