Gas available — strategy missing: Cyprus's missed chance in the new energy reality?

ExxonMobil's discovery of 7 trillion cubic feet of gas in Cyprus waters was supposed to be a turning point. Including already known fields like Aphrodite and Cronos, total reserves reach 14–18 trillion cubic feet. For a country with a population of about one million and high electricity tariffs, this is potentially energy independence. In practice, it remains a series of missed opportunities.

Geopolitical chance

The region's energy map is changing rapidly. Conflict in the Middle East, disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and threats in the Red Sea have effectively disrupted traditional supply routes to Europe. In these conditions, the Israel–Cyprus–Greece corridor becomes the only stable alternative. Cyprus finds itself at the center of the strategic supply chain to the EU.

But the paradox is that in 15 years, not a single cubic meter of Cypriot gas has entered the domestic market. The country continues to depend on fuel oil and diesel, paying for energy inefficiency out of consumers' pockets.

Chronicle of delays

Virtually all key projects were accompanied by loud announcements followed by failures: from the EastMed pipeline to the LNG terminal in Vasilikos. The latter has already cost hundreds of millions of euros, faced the departure of contractors, EU claims, and investigations. Implementation deadlines remain uncertain.

This systemic failure reflects a deeper problem: a lack of consistent planning. In Cyprus, discovering a field does not mean its development, and development does not guarantee production. An example is Aphrodite, discovered in 2011, but with production unlikely before the 2030s.

Others' strategies on the Cypriot map

Today, Cyprus is becoming part of others' energy strategies. Egypt is interested in gas processing, Israel in export through the island, and international companies in cost minimization. Even potential investors from the UAE view projects through the prism of their own interests.

This is not a problem in itself. The problem is that Cyprus itself still lacks a clear national plan. The difference between a participant and an observer is the ability to shape the agenda, rather than follow it.

What needs to change

Experts agree: the country needs a full-fledged energy strategy — with specific deadlines, routes, investments, and accountability mechanisms. It is not just about production, but about how the gas will be used domestically and integrated into the European system.

Even in an export scenario via Egypt, potential remains for domestic infrastructure, including an LNG terminal. At current energy prices, such projects become economically viable.

A second chance

Cyprus finds itself at a unique point — with resources, demand from the EU, and a geopolitical window of opportunity. But without a systemic approach, this chance could be lost, just like previous ones.

The main question today is not the volume of gas, but the state's ability to turn the resource into a strategic advantage. For now, the answer remains open.