Gas pipeline on paper: experts doubt the reality of the Turkish project in the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey's statement regarding a planned gas pipeline to the northern part of Cyprus does not yet have a real engineering basis. This conclusion was reached by Cypriot experts Giorgos Kentas and Paris Fokaides after analyzing recent remarks by Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.

On April 29, the Turkish minister stated that Ankara "has not abandoned the Mediterranean" and is working through the state-owned company Botas on a gas pipeline project to connect future fields with Turkey's power grid via the northern part of Cyprus. The statement was made against the backdrop of Turkish F-16 fighter jets flying over northern Nicosia and Kyrenia.

However, according to experts, the project currently exists only at the level of political rhetoric. Paris Fokaides notes that key parameters — cost, capacity, route, and implementation timeline — are missing from the public statement. This, in his view, indicates that it is more of a political signal than a real infrastructure project.

Giorgos Kentas adds that Turkey has for many years sought to strengthen its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Cyprus. However, such initiatives, he says, have not yet led to practical results.

At the same time, experts emphasize that not all of Ankara's energy projects are declarative. For instance, the electricity interconnection between Turkey and the northern part of Cyprus has advanced significantly further: a distance of about 70 kilometers makes the cable laying technically feasible, and relevant agreements were signed back in 2022. Nevertheless, the ultimate significance of the project remains political — it concerns the integration of the island into either the European or the Turkish power grid.

Kentas notes that energy infrastructure is increasingly becoming a tool of geopolitics and security. In this context, the larger Great Sea Interconnector project is also discussed — an undersea cable intended to connect Israel, Cyprus, and Greece and integrate the island into the EU power grid, although its implementation faces delays.

Turkey's statements were made against a backdrop of rising global energy prices: Brent crude has increased by more than 60% since the start of the spring escalation of the conflict with Iran, and the cost of gas in Europe is also rising.

Experts agree: even if the gas pipeline project does not yet exist in a practical sense, its emergence on the political agenda signals the growing role of energy in regional security and the competition of interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.